(中央社記者鐘榮峰臺北7日電)資策會MIC預估，今年臺灣半導體產值年成長率約負10%，明年全球半導體市場呈現緩步成長步調。

資訊工業策進會產業情報研究所(MIC)今舉辦「前瞻2012高科技產業十大趨勢」記者會，資策會MIC產業顧問兼副主任洪春暉表示，今年全球半導體市場動能趨緩，3C終端應用需求疲弱是主因，預估明年全球半導體市場仍將維持緩步的成長步調。

洪春暉表示，由于3C終端應用需求疲弱，今年全球半導體市場規模約3128.37億美元，較去年3003.15億美元僅成長4.2%，到年底前，實際市場規模和年成長率數字還會再向下調整。

洪春暉預估到2016年，全球半導體市場恐將長期維持緩步成長步調，預估年成長率都維持在5%以下。

另一方面，由于上半年IC設計業成長動能不足，以及下半年動態隨機存取記憶體(DRAM)減產影響，洪春暉預估今年臺灣半導體產值將出現負成長，整體臺灣半導體產值年成長率為負10%。

資策會MIC預估，今年臺灣IC封測產值為新臺幣3452億元，年減1.85%；IC制造晶圓代工產值為5349億元，年減1.34%。 IC制造記憶體產值為1822億元，年減34.67%；IC​​設計產值為3984億元，年減10.1%。

不過洪春暉指出，排除記憶體產業后，明年臺灣半導體次領域產業發展仍將朝正面發展。 

WSTS drops 2012 chip market growth to 2.6%

Peter Clarke

11/29/2011 7:18 AM EST

LONDON – The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization has lowered its prediction for the 2012 global chip market to 2.6 percent annual growth but raised its view of 2013 to 5.8 percent annual growth. The previous 2012 forecast from WSTS was for 7.6 percent growth.

WSTS now expects the worldwide semiconductor market to grow by just 1.3 percent in 2011 to $302 billion – in line with other forecasters – followed by 2.6 percent growth to $310 billion in 2012 and 5.8 percent growth in 2013 to take the chip market to $328 billion.

EE Times analysis puts the likely outcome for chip market growth in 2011 at between 0 and 2 percent.

The autumn 2011 WSTS forecast figures contrast with the more bullish forecast of 5.4 percent for 2011, 7.6 percent for 2012 and 5.4 percent for 2013 that WSTS made in its spring forecast published in June 2011.

As a result WSTS now thinks the 2013 global chip market will be 8 percent smaller than it was previously predicting; $328 billion versus $356.6 billion.

"In 2011, the semiconductor industry had to weather the slowdown of world economies from financial turmoil due to European debt concerns, clear declines of industrial and consumer confidence, as well as the supply chain disruptions by the earthquake disaster in Japan and recent flooding in Thailand," said WSTS in a statement.

WSTS added that in 2011 an oversupply in DRAM has prompted a decline in memory revenue but this was partially offset by "healthy growth" in the microcontroller, sensors and discrete semiconductor sectors.

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